媒体不实报道的长期价值毁损效应研究——基于中联重科的案例分析

The Research of Long-time Value Destruction Effect of the FALSE Media Reports: Case Study Based on Zhonglianzhongke

近年来,媒体不实报道层出不穷,严重损害了公司和投资者利益,但以往文献对此缺乏必要的和应有的关注。本文以2012年开始的《新快报》对中联重科发表的系列不实报道为研究对象,采用案例研究方法,对不实报道的经济后果进行了探究,结果表明:不实报道对目标企业的市场价值产生严重负面影响,短窗口的CAR、长窗口的BHAR、经营业绩、机构投资者持股比例、分析师预测准确性下降。并且,不实报道被证明不实之后,市场价值短期内并没有恢复,在之后的一年内,相关指标持续恶化,这表明媒体不实报道对公司和投资者利益的负面影响严重、广泛且具有长期性,这符合桑斯坦(2010)提出的社会流瀑和群体极化理论。

In recent years,false media reports have emerged in an endless stream,seriously damaging the interests of companies and investors.However,past literature didn’t pay necessary and due attention on it.Based on a series of false reports related to Zoomlion,published on"Xinjing News"from 2012,we find that false media reports have a serious negative impact on Zoomlion’s market value,using case study method to analysis the economic consequences of misreporting in the media.Cumulative Abnormal Return(CAR)in short window,Buy and Hold Abnormal Return(BHAR)in long window,operating performance,institutional investor ownership and analyst prediction accuracy all declined.What’s worse,case enterprise’s market value didn’t recover and the relevant finance indicators continued to deteriorate even if misleading reports have been proved false,which shows that the negative impact of false media coverage has widespread and long-term effect.Our findings fit to the theory of Social Cascades Effect and Group Polarization Theory put forward by Thornstein(2010).