气候变化条件下风电产业与环境支撑能力的耦合协调度研究

Research on the Coupling Coordination Degree Between Wind Power Industry and Environmental Support Capacity Under Climate Chang

构建风电产业发展与环境支撑能力的耦合协调度评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型分别对2013—2019年全国和典型地区两者的耦合协调度进行了计算和分析。结果表明,我国风电产业与环境支撑能力的耦合协调度总体呈上升趋势,空间分布特征明显;“三北”地区的耦合协调度较高,中东部和南方地区则相对较低。因气候变化条件下的风速变化可能对评估结果产生影响,以区域气候模式的风速预测结果作为输入变量,分析了未来气候变化条件下风电产业与环境支撑能力的耦合协调度。随着风电产业外部环境支撑能力的不断完善和发展,风电产业与环境支撑能力的耦合协调度不断提高,二者将呈现协同发展的良好态势。

The coupling coordination degree evaluation index system between wind power industry development and environmental support capacity was constructed,the coupling coordination degree model was used to calculate and analyze the coupling coordination degree of the whole country and typical regions from 2013 to 2019.The results show that the coupling coordination degree of wind power industry and environmental support capacity in China is on the rise,the spatial distribution characteristics are obvious;the coupling coordination degree of the"Three North"region is high,while that of the Middle East and South regions is relatively low.Because the change of wind speed under climate change conditions may affect the evaluation results,taking the wind speed prediction results of regional climate model as the input variable,the coupling coordination degree of wind power industry and environmental support capacity under the condition of future climate change is analyzed.With the continuous improvement and development of the external environmental support capacity of the wind power industry,the degree of coupling and coordination between the wind power industry and the environmental support capacity continues to improve,the two will show a good trend of coordinated development.