基于CORDEX模式的浙江省环境舒适度研究

Bio-meteorological Environmental Comfort of Zhejiang Province Based on CORDEX Model Projection

根据区域气候模式模拟结果,本文从环境舒适度视角出发,进行多种分析,旨在揭示浙江省环境舒适度现在和未来时空变化特征,为气候资源评价提供科学依据。以浙江省为研究区域,采用通用气候指数(universal thermal climate index,UTCI)和ArcGIS软件进行环境舒适度时空分析评价,并对浙江省未来不同排放情景模式下的环境舒适度进行预估。浙江省现在环境舒适度,年均舒适度比例最高的是舒适,其次为热不舒适和冷不舒适。影响环境舒适度主要因子为气温,其次是辐射温度,其它气象因子影响不显著;未来RCP4.5和RCP8.5不同排放情景模式下预估,浙江省整体环境舒适度,舒适和冷不舒适度日数将下降,热不舒适日数上升。春季、夏季和秋季的舒适日数下降,冬季舒适日数上升;在未来浙江省山区舒适度将上升,平原城市地区舒适度将下降。浙江省环境舒适度在未来有增暖、增热趋势,本研究可以为相关部门的计划决策以及人民的生产生活提供一定的参考。

Based on the result of the regional climate model simulations,this article embarks from the perspective of environmental comfort,reveals the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of Zhejiang Province environmental comfort in the present and in the future,providing scientific basis for evaluation of climate resources.The Universal Thermal Climate Index(UTCI)and ArcGIS software were used to analyze and evaluate the environmental comfort characteristic,and the environmental comfort under different emission scenarios in Zhejiang Province in the future.The proportion of environmental comfort in Zhejiang province was from most to least for pleasant,heat stress and cold stress.The dominant factor affecting the environmental comfort is air temperature,followed by radiation temperature.According to the estimation of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 different emission scenarios,the number of pleasant and cold stress days decreased,while the number of heat stress days increased.The number of pleasant days in spring,summer and autumn decreased,while the number of pleasant days in winter increased.In the future,the pleasant days in the mountainous areas of Zhejiang Province will rise,while the pleasant days in the plain urban areas will decline.The environmental comfort level of Zhejiang Province will change obviously in the future.The policy of migration,urban planning,tourism authorities,travel agencies,resorts,and tourists in Zhejiang Province could be beneficial from these results.