基于改进SHAP的城市供水管网爆管主影响因素研究

Research on Main Influencing Factors of Bursting of Urban Water Supply Network Based on Improved SHAP

城市供水管网爆管事件频发,基于爆管主影响因素的风险评估研究亟待深入开展。主影响因素识别是爆管风险评估准确性的重要基础,现有爆管风险评估模型研究缺乏对爆管主影响因素的分析,导致模型精度偏低。本文提出基于信息增益率权值的改进SHAP法(SHapley Additive ex Planation),改善了多影响因素共同作用时各个特征的shapley值区分度较小、误差较大的问题。使得特征区分度较好、误差降低,有利于影响爆管的主影响因素更容易被自来水公司发觉。对爆管评估模型进行主影响因素分析结果表明,基于改进SHAP法获得的爆管主影响因素有利于提高供水管道爆管风险评估的准确率。

Incidents of pipe failure in water distribution network occur frequently,and risk assessment studies based on the main influencing factors of pipe failure need to be further developed.The identification of the main influencing factors is an important basis for the accuracy of the pipe failure risk assessment.The existing pipe failure risk assessment model research lacks the analysis of the main influencing factors of the pipe failure,resulting in a low model accuracy.This paper proposes an improved traditional SHAP method based on Information Gain Ratio,which improves the problem that multiple influencing factors work together.The shapley value of each feature has a small degree of discrimination and a large error.The main influencing factors that make the characteristics distinguish better and reduce the error in favor of decision-making classification are more likely to be discovered by the water supply company.The main influencing factor analysis results of the pipe failure assessment model show that the main influencing factors of pipe failure based on the improved SHAP method are beneficial Improve the accuracy of risk assessment of pipe failure.