摘要
对浙江省连续4年短期天气的国家级、省级客观指导预报和各预报台站的主观订正预报进行评估分析。分析的结果表明各级的订正预报存在明显的必要性;各级预报的预报能力存在明显的季节差异、地理差异,以及受重要天气系统影响下存在差异。评估分析的结论对今后预报技术改进提供了清晰的重点和目标。
According to the analysis on verification of short term weather forecasts in Zhejiang during 2015-2018,in comparison of the national,provincial objective instruction forecasts and local subjective forecasts,it shows the significant necessity of the local forecaster’s subjective correction.The forecasting capabilities of meteorological stations at national,provincial and municipal levels are verified in terms of natural weather season,region and main synoptic system.The verification results could be good references for the improvement of weather forecast technology.
作者
张炎
Zhang Yan(Department of Atmosphere Science,School of Earth Sciences,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310007,China;Meteorological Bureau of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310007,China)
出处
《科技通报》
2020年第7期29-34,38,共7页
Bulletin of Science and Technology
基金
浙江省气象局科技计划项目(2017YB01)。
关键词
预报
准确率
误差
季节差异
forecasts
verification
accuracy rate
error
seasonal difference
