成渝双城经济圈县域产业结构升级与碳排放效率的时空耦合及影响因素

Spatial-Temporal Coupling and Influencing Factors of County-level Industrial Structure Upgrading and Carbon Emission Efficiency in Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

鉴于目前对产业结构升级和碳排放之间耦合协调关系的县级层面的研究相对较少,基于非期望超效率SBM模型、耦合协调度模型、Dagum基尼系数分析和时空跃迁分析,以成渝双城经济圈141个区县为研究对象,探究其2005—2020年产业结构升级与碳排放效率耦合协调度的时空格局及差异来源,阐释产业结构升级与碳排放效率的耦合机制,同时构建空间杜宾模型分析其影响因素。结果表明:(1)2005—2020年成渝双城经济圈产业结构升级与碳排放效率的耦合协调度整体偏低,处于拮抗阶段,逐步形成以成都主城区与重庆主城区为双核心的放射性分布特征,重庆主城区的放射作用随着时间推进不断增强,但是成都主城区的放射作用在逐渐减弱;(2)区域耦合协调度的空间格局较为稳定,空间集聚性逐渐增强,总体差异呈现先上升后下降的变化趋势,且主要来源于区域间的差异;(3)城镇化水平、科技创新潜力和城市空间因素都对区域耦合协调度具有显著的正向影响,政府干预和金融发展水平对耦合协调度具有显著的负向影响。为进一步提升成渝双城经济圈产业结构升级与碳排放效率的协调耦合水平,根据研究结果提出成渝地区各地方政府因地制宜制定相关措施、兼顾和强化与邻近地区的交流合作,在经济结构调整中适度干预、合理配置金融资源,以及大力促进区域科技创新等对策建议。

Considering that there are relatively few county-level studies on the coupling and coordination relationship between industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions,based on the unexpected super-efficiency SBM model,coupling and coordination degree model,Dagum Gini coefficient analysis and space-time transition analysis,taking 141 districts and counties of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle as the research object,this paper explores its space-time pattern and source of differences of the coupling and coordination degree between industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions efficiency from 2005 to 2020,explains the coupling mechanism between industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission efficiency,and builds a spatial Dubin model to analyze its influencing factors.The results show that:(1)From 2005 to 2020,the coupling coordination between the upgrading of the industrial structure and the carbon emission efficiency of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle is generally low,and it is in the antagonistic stage,gradually forming the radioactive distribution characteristics with the main urban area of Chengdu and the main urban area of Chongqing as the dual core,and the radiation effect of the main urban area of Chongqing continues to increase with the progress of time,but the radiation effect of the main urban area of Chengdu is gradually weakening.(2)The spatial pattern of regional coupling coordination degree is relatively stable,the spatial agglomeration is gradually strengthened,and the overall difference shows a trend of rising first and then falling,and mainly comes from regional differences.(3)Urbanization level,scientific and technological innovation potential and urban spatial factors have a significant positive impact on the regional coupling coordination degree,while government intervention and financial development level have a significant negative impact on the coupling coordination degree.In order to further improve the coordination and coupling level of industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission efficiency of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle,based on the above research results,the local governments in Chengdu-Chongqing region should formulate relevant measures according to local conditions,take into account and strengthen exchanges and cooperation with neighboring regions,appropriately intervene in economic structure adjustment,reasonably allocate financial resources,and vigorously promote regional scientific and technological innovation.