碳中和目标下我国光伏发电发展路径规划研究

Study on China’s Optimal Solar Photovoltaic Power Development Path to Achieve Carbon Neutrality

能源绿色低碳转型背景下,光伏发电已经成为我国发展最快且最有潜力的可再生能源。本研究基于历史数据构建了反映光伏发电单位投资成本下降趋势的学习曲线模型,建立了技术扩散模型估计光伏发电每年装机潜力,并在政策发展目标、投资水平、光伏发电量最低占比、电网消纳能力等约束下,以规划期内光伏发电总成本最小化为目标,构建了光伏发电发展路径规划模型,计算2023~2060年光伏发电每年的最优装机容量。结果显示,该模型能够综合平衡退役与新增装机规模,以及学习效应导致的光伏电站倾向前期少建而后期大量建设与阶段发展目标要求之间的冲突关系,该模型可为碳中和目标下光伏产业规划和政策制定提供方法支撑。

Ongoing green and low-carbon energy transformation has shown the potential of solar photovoltaic power as a renewable energy in China featuring the fastest development and widest application.In the study,a learning curve model was constructed to describe the downward trend of the unit investment cost of solar photovoltaic power based on the historical data,and the technology diffusion model to estimate the annual installed capacity potential of solar photovoltaic power.Given the constraints of policy development objectives,investment level,minimum proportion of solar photovoltaic power,and grid consumption capacity,and the goal of minimizing the total cost of photovoltaic power generation,a solar photovoltaic power development path planning model was constructed to calculate the optimal annual installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power from 2023 to 2060.It was found that this model can comprehensively reduce the conflict between decommissioning and new installed capacity,between the less solar photovoltaic power plants in the early stage and larger-scale construction of plants in the later stages caused by the learning effect,and the requirements of stage development goals of different stages.The model can provide methods to guide the planning and policy formulation of the photovoltaic industry under the goal of carbon neutrality.