西藏自治区人口城镇化与基本公共服务协调发展研究

Research on the Coordinated Development of Population Urbanization and Basic Public Services in Tibet Autonomous Region

本研究以西藏自治区73个区县为研究单元,运用熵权法、耦合协调度模型和空间自相关分析方法对人口城镇化系统、基本公共服务系统及两个系统的协调发展程度进行了分析。结果表明:(1)人口城镇化水平发展增长呈现“中心区县高及东南高、西北低”的空间格局;(2)基本公共服务水平快速提高的趋势更加明显,阿里地区增速最快,各地级市中心区县发展最优;(3)耦合协调水平落后,但呈现出增长的发展趋势,2000年与2015年格局相似,空间分异明显;(4)耦合协调度的空间正相关性日益显著;局部空间自相关结果表明协调发展具有以拉萨和山南为核心的“核心-边缘”特征;热点区先向北扩张、后向南缩小,次热点区呈现“东北—西南”的方向性,次冷点区范围缩小,集聚在昌都和林芝东部,冷点区数量增加,集中在藏西北高寒区域。

73 counties in Tibet Autonomous Region were used as research units to analyze the population urbanization system,basic public service system and the coordinated development degree of the two systems by using the entropy weight method,the coupling coordination degree model and the spatial autocorrelation analysis.The results show that:(1)The urbanization level increases rapidly with time going by,showing the spatial pattern of higher in the central counties,and higher in the southeast counties and lower in the northwest counties.(2)The trend of rapid improvement of basic public service level is more obvious,the growth of Ngari Prefecture is the fastest,and the development of central counties is the best.(3)The overall development level of coupling coordination in Tibet is backward,but it shows a growing trend.The pattern of 2000 is similar to that of 2015,with obvious spatial differentiation.(4)The spatial positive correlation of coupling coordination degree becomes more significant.The local spatial autocorrelation results show that coordinated development has the characteristics of"core-periphery"with Lhasa and Shannan as the core.The hot spots first expand to the north and then shrink to the south,and the secondary hot spots show a direction of"northeast to southwest".The area of the secondary cold spots shrinks and concentrates in the east of Qamdo and Nyingchi,while the number of cold spots increases and concentrates in the alpine region in northwest Tibet.