云模型在区域灾害风险评估中的应用研究

Application of Cloud Model in Regional Disaster Risk Assessment

本研究将云模型用于区域灾害风险评估,运用层次分析方法(AHP)和云模型方法消除评价指标的模糊性和随机性带来的影响,建立了针对自然灾害风险、工业企业风险源、人员密集场所、交通运输和其他方面的风险评价指标体系,并成立专家组打分,再以此为依据运用云模型得到区域灾害风险综合云图,然后将其与标准云图作对比以确定区域风险等级,最后运用该模型对河南临汝镇的灾害风险进行了评估。结果表明:临汝镇整体处于一般风险水平,评估结果与实际相符,验证了该评估方法的可靠性和可操作性,它可作为提高区域安全生产水平的一种科学手段。

Cloud model was applied to regional disaster risk assessment.The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and the cloud model methods were used to eliminate the impact of fuzziness and randomness of evaluation indicators,and then an evaluation index system for natural disaster risk,risk sources of industrial enterprises,densely populated places,transportation and others was established,and an expert group was established to score for it.On this basis,the cloud model was used to obtain the regional disaster risk cloud map,and compared it with the standard cloud map to determine the regional risk level.Finally,the model was used to evaluate the disaster risk of Linru town of Henan province.The results showed that Linru town is at the general risk level as a whole,and the assessment results were consistent with the reality,thus the reliability and operability of the assessment method were verified and this assessment method canbe used as a scientific means to improve the level of regional safety production.