中国铝资源供应安全预警系统研究

Research on Security Early Warning System of Aluminum Resource Supply in China

铝是中国战略性矿产资源之一。2017年中国铝资源对外依存度已超过50%的警戒线,供应形势不容乐观。为深入研究中国铝资源的供应安全问题,选取资源禀赋、供求状态、可持续发展能力和国防保障能力4个一级指标,构建了中国铝资源供应安全预警评价指标体系并采用熵权法确定了指标权重,运用常权和变权模型对2008~2017年中国铝资源供应安全进行评价,利用改进的GM(1,1)模型和BP神经网络模型预测2020~2025年中国铝资源供应安全趋势。结果表明:(1)2008~2017年中国铝资源供应安全评价值位于3.4~4.3区间内,由黄色预警转至橙色预警等级,供应风险从一般升至较高状态;(2)2020~2025年中国铝资源供应安全评价值位于3.5~3.9区间内,皆处于橙色预警等级,供应风险较高;(3)中国铝资源供应安全将面临储采比减小、资源应急保障年限下降以及对外依存度上升等问题。

Aluminum is one of the strategic mineral resources in China.In 2017,the degree of its external dependence exceeded the warning line of 50%,showing that the supply situation is not optimistic.In order to study the supply security of aluminum resource in China,four first-class indicators of resource endowment,status of supply and demand,sustainable development capability,and national defense support capability,were selected to build an early warning evaluation index system.Meanwhile,the index weight was determined by the entropy weight method,and the constant weight model and the variable weight model were adopted to evaluate the supply security of China’s aluminum resources in 2008~2017,the improved GM(1,1)model and the BP neural network model were used to forecast the supply security of China’s aluminum resource in 2020~2025.The following main conclusions were drawn:(1)In 2008~2017,China’s aluminum resource supply security evaluation value was in the range of 3.4~4.3,with the warning level changed from yellow to orange,and the supply risk rosen from general state to higher state;(2)In 2020~2025,China’s aluminum resource supply security evaluation value was in the range of 3.5~3.9,with the warning level of orange and high supply risk;(3)The supply security of China’s aluminum resource is facing the problems of reserve production ratio reducing,resource emergency guarantee period decreasing,and external dependency increasing.