人口负增长背景下人口规模巨大的现代化及其人口发展战略

Modernization of A Huge Population and the Strategy of Population Development in the Era of Negative Population Growth

鉴于人口规模巨大作为中国式现代化的首要特征,学术界亟须对人口规模巨大与中国式现代化之间的关系做出学理和实践两个层面的阐释。人口负增长时代的来临以及与之伴随的人口少子化、老龄化和高流动性等新特征更是决定了应尽快构建有关人口规模巨大的中国式现代化理论体系。既往实践证明,西方现有人口与发展理论及其为发展中国家提供的有关人口规模巨大的现代化“药方”本身存在严重缺陷,直接“拿来”往往收效甚微甚至适得其反。在人口负增长背景下,应增强人口与发展理论和政策的内生性,精心培育积极的人口发展观,并更为注重人口与发展的双向互动,从而逐渐实现人口与发展的理念转变及理论重构。行动策略方面,要实现人口规模巨大的中国式现代化,需要从制定原则、目标、视角和实施策略等方面深度优化人口发展战略,从而切实促进人口高质量发展。

As huge population size is the primary feature of Chinese-style modernization,it is urgent for the academic circle to explain the relationship between huge population size and Chinese-style modernization at both academic and practical levels.The advent of the era of negative population growth and the accompanying phenomena such as low birthrate,demographic aging and high mobility make it necessary that a theoretical system of Chinese-style modernization characterized by a huge population size be built as soon as possible.Past experiences have proved that existing Western theories of population and development and the“prescriptions”they provide for modernizing a country with a huge population are seriously flawed,and are ineffective or even counterproductive if employed uncritically.Against the background of negative population growth,an endogenous theory and policy of population and development should be prioritized to cultivate a proactive conception of population and development and stress the two-way interaction between them.In this way,a conceptual transformation and theoretical reconstruction can be secured.In terms of action strategy,it is necessary to optimize the population development strategy in the aspects of strategic principles,objectives,perspectives and implementation strategies so as to promote high-quality population development and achieve Chinese-style modernization.