政策执行与市场分割:《劳动合同法》长期影响的异质性研究

Policy Enforcement and Segregated Labor Market:The Heterogeneous Long-term Effects of China’s Labor Contract Law

本文基于中国综合社会调查2006—2015年数据,综合群组比较和时期分析,考察了中国2008年《劳动合同法》对不同类型非农受雇者劳动合同签订、收入和工作时长的长期影响,以图理解制度变迁和政策执行对社会不平等的影响。研究结果表明,《劳动合同法》实施当年劳动合同签订率明显提高,但因政策执行力度下降,合同签订率随后有所回落,其后再缓慢上升或稳定;《劳动合同法》实施对不同群体的影响存在异质性,主要劳动力市场合同签订率较高,增长较快且不易回落,次要劳动力市场劳动合同签订率较低,增长相对缓慢;不同群体在合同签订方面的差距一度有所扩大,回落后仍始终存在。执行力度差异和劳动力市场分割结构等社会结构为政策制度的异质性影响提供了解释。

Based on the data of Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)2006-2015,this study evaluates the effects of China’s Labor Contract Law in 2008 on different employee groups regarding their contract signing rate,income,and working hours.The results suggest that the vigorous enforcement of the law in the first year increased the rate of employment with written contracts.The difference between employees in the primary and secondary labor markets,however,remains large.Signing rate in the primary labor market remains high and seldom drops.Signing rate in the secondary labor market,however,is generally low and increases slowly.The enforcement of the law weakened soon after the first year and the contract signing rate dropped quickly,only to rise up again slowly.Since the implementation of the Labor Contract Law,the differences in the probability of getting a written contract among employees in different regions,with different education levels and in different types of work units,enlarged for 4 to 5 years.We argued that the enforcement strength and the labor market structure as a social structure are the key factors behind these differences and the patterns.This study aims to further our understanding of institutional change and social stratification.