“双碳”目标对经济增长扭动力的理论分析

A Theoretical Analysis on the“Twisting Force”of“Dual Carbon”Target to the Economic Growth

在经济增长与“双碳”双目标问题中,“双碳”目标作为新条件,对经济增长动能和增长模式产生了广泛而深刻的影响。通过环境政策工具,碳排放不仅作用于劳动、资本和技术进步等传统生产要素,更成为新的生产要素直接进入经济增长模型。本文研究发现,碳排放约束对经济增长既可能产生正向扭动,也可能产生负向扭动,即可能对经济增长具有正负双向影响的“扭动力”作用。本文进一步从经济学理论角度对该“扭动力”影响机制进行分析,同时提出促进碳排放约束对经济增长的正向扭动力、规避负向扭动力的政策建议。

Under the constraint of the dual goals of economic growth and the“dual carbon”target,the“dual carbon”target,as a new condition,has a broad and profound impact on the economic growth momentum and growth model.Through environmental policy tools,carbon emissions not only act on traditional factors of production such as labor,capital and technological progress,but also become new factors of production directly into the economic growth model.This paper finds that the carbon emission constraint may produce both positive and negative twist on economic growth,that is,the“twisting force”with positive and negative influence on economic growth.Further,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of the“twisting force”from the perspective of economic theory,and puts forward policy suggestions to promote the positive twisting force of carbon emission constraint on economic growth and avoid the negative torsion force.