从流动性的主要去向看美国通胀的韧性

The persistence of U.S. inflation in terms of the channels of excess money liquidity

央行投放的市场过剩流动性通常主要有三大去向:一是流入实体经济,变为全面的物价上涨和通胀;二是流向金融市场,推高资产价格,形成资产泡沫;三是进入信贷市场,沉淀在银行系统和居民储蓄中,造成资产负债表衰退,滋生众多僵尸企业。本文对20个主要经济体的M2和CPI做相关性分析和格兰杰因果检验,结果显示有18个经济体均呈现较强的正相关,且多个国家M2和CPI存在因果关系。从流动性的三大去向可以解释新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来美国通胀水平前低后高的变化。2020年释放出的大量流动性首先流向了金融市场,并迅速推高各类资产价格。2021年下半年,金融市场吸收流动性的能力逼近临界点,更多流动性溢出到实体经济领域,美国实体通胀压力愈演愈烈。货币超发不一定造成通货膨胀(以下简称通胀),但通胀归根到底仍是货币现象。美国过去十多年极度宽松的货币金融条件为此次高通胀埋下了隐患,当遇上供给侧冲击和能源价格上涨,通胀便席卷而来,且韧性超乎预期。仅靠美联储渐进式的紧缩难以快速压低通胀,近期大宗商品价格飙升更是延缓了通胀的下行。通胀持续时间越长,“通胀—通胀预期”以及“薪资—物价”的两个上升螺旋在逐步蓄能,可能引发通胀预期脱锚,使当前的通胀变得根深蒂固。

Typically,the excess money liquidity generated by the central bank has three main places to go:first,it flows into the real economy,which results in broad price increases and inflation;second,it flows into the financial market,pushing up asset prices and forming asset bubbles;third,it enters the credit market,precipitated in the banking system and household savings,causing balance sheet recessions,and breeding many zombie companies.Many countries have adopted unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus in response to the public health crisis,with extremely accommodative monetary policy and fiscal expansion supporting aggregate demand.The broad money aggregate M2 has expanded rapidly,followed by the surge in inflation.Through correlation analysis and Granger causality test on M2 and CPI of 20 major economies,the results show that 18 economies have strong positive correlations,and there is a causal relationship between M2 and CPI in many countries.Excessive money liquidity does not necessarily cause inflation,but inflation is always a monetary phenomenon.The extremely loose monetary and financial conditions in the United States over the past decade have laid hidden trouble for the current inflation,coupled with supply shocks and soaring energy prices,inflation has swept in and far exceeded expectations.The gradual tightening by the Federal Reserve may not bring down inflation quickly,meanwhile,the surge in commodity prices has put additional pressure on prices.When high inflation persists,two upward spirals of inflation-inflation expectations and wages-prices could formulate,which may lead to the de-anchoring of inflation expectations,making high inflation more entrenched and requiring more costs to tame inflation.