储蓄率决定因素的国际比较分析——兼论人口因素对中国储蓄率的影响

International Comparative Analysis of Determinants of Savings Rate——At the Same Time to Discuss the Impact of Demographic Factors on China’s Savings Rate

研究储蓄率的决定因素对于理解各国储蓄率的差异以及各国潜在经济增长率的差异具有重要意义。本文基于跨国面板数据研究全球储蓄率的决定因素,并从人口年龄结构的角度对中国未来三十年的储蓄率走势进行预测。实证结果显示老年抚养比上升1%使储蓄率降低0.371%,少年抚养比上升1%使储蓄率降低0.122%。基于联合国老年抚养比、少年抚养比的预测数据以及本文的实证分析,预测在未来的几十年,人口老龄化将对中国的储蓄率产生巨大影响,储蓄率的下降将对投资产生不利影响,进而不利于潜在经济增长率的提高。而基于易富贤与苏剑的人口预测数据得到的储蓄率走势预测结果更加严峻。最后,从制定合理的生育政策、提高退休年龄、提高自主创新能力等方面提出政策建议。

Studying the determinants of savings rate is of great significance for understanding the differences of savings rate and potential economic growth rate among countries.Based on transnational panel data,this paper studies the determinants of global savings rate and predicts the trend of China’s savings rate in the next 30 years from the perspective of population age structure.The empirical results show that an increase of 1%in the old-age dependency ratio reduces the savings rate by 0.371%,and an increase of 1%in the juvenile dependency ratio reduces the savings rate by 0.122%.Based on the United Nations forecast data of old-age dependency ratio and juvenile dependency ratio and the empirical analysis of this paper,it is predicted that in the coming decades,the aging of population will have a huge impact on China’s savings rate,and the decline of savings rate will have a negative impact on investment,thus not conducive to the increase of potential economic growth rate.Based on the population forecast data of Yi Fuxian and Su Jian,the forecast result of saving rate trend is even more grim.Finally,some policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of formulating reasonable birth policy,raising retirement age and improving independent innovation ability.