新冠肺炎疫情和拜登当选双驱动下中美贸易摩擦演化动态数据仿真计量研究

Research on Dynamic Data Simulation and Measurement of Sino-US Trade Frictions under COVID-19 and Biden’s Election

2020年新冠肺炎疫情在全球大范围扩散后,特别是美国疫情控制始终没有出现拐点,以及美国总统换届选举拜登当选总统,他推行的一系列治国新政,使中美两国贸易摩擦及合作关系问题在2018年后重新成为研究热点。回顾中美两国贸易合作关系,从贸易分歧产生至摩擦发展全过程进行系统分析,再根据新冠肺炎疫情出现后两国合作关系的改善,提出本文的研究理论假设。回顾中美贸易摩擦过程,两国采取多轮谈判磋商措施,新冠肺炎疫情出现及美国领导人变更,中美两国贸易现状出现新变化,因此利用计量仿真模型进行后续贸易摩擦模拟和预测。根据预测结果,试图提出重大疫情和政治变更双重背景推动下贸易摩擦解决的新思路和新方法。

In 2020,the novel coronavirus pneumonia spread worldwide,especially in the US,and there was no turning point in epidemic control.As a result,the new policy of Biden’s election was elected by the president of the United States.The trade frictions and cooperative relations between China and the United States became a hot topic after 2018.Reviewing the Sino US novel coronavirus pneumonia trade cooperation relationship,and analyzing the whole process from the trade divergence to the friction development,and then,based on the improvement of the two cooperation relations after the emergence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic,the theoretical hypothesis of this study is put forward.Assuming that China’s national strength and industrial structure adjustment cause friction,the relative degree of monetary influence between China and the United States increases,and the supply side reform promotes the escalation of trade friction,this paper uses OLS regression analysis model to test the theoretical hypothesis,and finds that the research hypothesis is consistent with practical experience from both theory and practice.Novel coronavirus pneumonia and the US leaders have changed in the process of Sino US trade frictions,and the new situation of Sino US trade has also been seen.Therefore,the trade simulation and prediction of the subsequent trade frictions are conducted by using the econometric model.According to the forecast results,this paper attempts to put forward new ideas and new methods to solve trade friction under the dual background of major epidemic and political changes.