稳金融:破解“麦克米伦缺口”的中国实践研究——LPR新机制理论贡献与价格信号识别

Stabilizing Finance:A study on the Chinese practice of breaking the “Macmillan gap”——Theoretical contribution of LPR new mechanism and price signal recognition

基于"麦克米伦缺口"的研究,本文提出制度缺陷是当前解决"缺口"问题的国际难点。人民银行LPR改革是货币政策创新的中国政策,其政策逻辑对解决市场失灵具有理论创新贡献。解决市场失灵需要新的价格引导,本文通过将"金融缺口"纳入利率规则,进行实证分析,提出两方面结论,一方面,中期政策利率规则具备泰勒规则特征,政策调整符合服务实体经济的政策目标;另一方面,央行政策操作稳健审慎,LPR趋势受短期(战胜疫情)、中期(金融开放)和长期(人口老龄化等)因素影响。文中最后建议要稳预期,正确解读中期政策利率;推进存量贷款新基准的平稳转换,确立LPR贷款定价中基准地位;发展衍生产品市场,选择多样化的市场参考利率。

Based on the research and practice of"Macmillan gap",this paper finds that institutional defects are the current international problems and expounds that the reform of the people’s Bank of China’s LPR is China’s decision-making plan,and its policy logic has innovative contributions in theory and practice.To solve the market failure,new price guidance is needed.The author makes an empirical analysis by including the"financial gap"into the interest rate rules and draws conclusions:(1)the medium-term policy interest rate rules have the characteristics of Taylor’s rules,and adjust the policy objectives in line with the real economy;(2)the central bank,s policy operation is sound and prudent,and the LPR trend is affected by shortterm(to overcome the epidemic),medium-term(financial opening)and long-term(population aging)factors.Main suggestions:(1)Properly interpret the relationship between medium-term policy interest rate and market interest rate,and stabilize expectations to play an expected guiding role;(2)Promote the smooth conversion of new benchmark of stock loan and establish the benchmark position in LPR loan pricing;(3)Developing derivative market and choosing diversified market reference interest rate.