关于美股财富效应和投资效应的简单测算

A Simple Measurement of the Wealth Effect and Investment Effect of US Stocks

从历史走势来看,美股涨跌与美国经济表现具有较强一致性。20世纪90年代,美股持续上涨伴随居民消费率显著上升以及私人投资增速加快,成为验证美股财富效应和投资效应存在的重要证据。我们的实证分析结果表明,美股财富效应的确存在,但股市财富效应在金融危机之后有所减弱,其主要原因在于次贷危机爆发后美国家庭部门处于去杠杆周期,且家庭财富分布不平等加剧;美股投资效应显著,股价变动会对私人投资产生持续的正向影响。未来美股泡沫一旦破裂,股市下跌将会通过负向财富效应和投资效应对实体经济造成较大冲击。对于特朗普政府而言,美股涨跌是事关其政绩评价的面子工程,但更是事关美国经济未来的表现,而后者直接关系到2020年特朗普大选连任的成败大计。

From the historical trend,the performance of US stocks is in line with the performance of the US economy.In the 1990 s,the continued rise of US stocks accompanied by a signif icant increase in household consumption rates and the acceleration of private investment growth became important evidence for verifying the wealth effect and investment effect of US stocks.Our empirical analysis shows that the wealth effect of the US stocks does exist,but it has weakened after the f inancial crisis,mainly because the US family sector is in a deleveraging cycle after the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis and the inequality of family wealth distribution is increasing;the investment effect of US stocks is signif icant,and stock price changes will have a positive impact on private investment.In the future,if the US stock bubble bursts,the stock market decline will have a great impact on the real economy through the negative wealth effect and investment effect.Therefore,for the Trump administration,the rise and fall of US stocks is a matter of prestige,but it is more about the future performance of the US economy,which is directly related to his re-election in 2020.