移动支付对基础货币与货币供应可控性的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Controllability of Mobile Payment to Base Money and Money Supply

随着移动支付的不断发展,移动支付在改变我国人民日常支付方式的同时,是否也会对我国基础货币规模和内部结构形成冲击,进而影响中央银行对货币供应量的控制能力,是一个值得关注的问题。本文从货币政策价格型和规模型两类指标出发,对2008~2018年我国移动支付的季度数据与基础货币规模和结构之间的关系进行了实证分析,研究结果表明,移动支付替代率与我国基础货币的规模呈正向关系,并通过两类指标对我国基础货币的规模和结构产生长期冲击,加大了中央银行对货币供应量的控制难度。为此,本文从完善金融统计制度、加强现金需求预测等方面提出了针对性的建议,以提高我国中央银行对货币供应量的整体控制能力。

With the continuous development of mobile payment,mobile payment will also have an impact on the size and internal structure of China’s base currency while changing the daily payment methods in China,which will affect the central bank’s controllability of money supply.It is a problem of concern.Based on the monetary policy of price type and scale type,this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between the quarterly data of China’s mobile payment and the size and structure of the base currency in 2008~2018.The research results show that the mobile payment replacement rate and China’s base currency scale has a positive relationship,and through two types of indicators,it has a long-term impact on the size and structure of China’s base currency,and it has made it more difficult for the central bank to control the money supply.To this end,we propose targeted recommendations from the aspects of improving the financial statistics system and strengthening cash demand forecasting to improve the overall controllability of the central bank over money supply.