中美贸易摩擦对两国就业的传导方向和影响因素研究

The Research on the Transduction Way and Influencing Factors of Sino-US Trade Disputes to Employment

贸易保护主义除了可能带来贸易冲突,而且可能抑制创造就业机会。本文通过一个扩展的国际贸易的就业效应模型,考察2001-2017年贸易对中美两国就业的影响。结果发现:①从长期来看,中美两国进口和国内就业之间是存在正相关关系的,但是出口对国内就业的影响不确定。②对于美国来讲,美国进口增长有利于就业增长,扩大出口抑制就业,出口导致就业损失大于就业创造,同时出口的就业替代效应较大。③对于中国来讲,中国出口和进口增长的就业创造效应显著,而且进口的就业创造效应更大。④从中国和美国的贸易摩擦对就业的影响来看,增加从中国进口占美国总进口比值变量后并没有改变美国出口才是其失业率提高的主因,而非从中国进口;中美贸易摩擦对中国的就业影响是双向下降的,从进口和出口两个方面;但是对美国就业影响仅为单向下降,主要因素是出口。

Rather than creating jobs,protectionist measures could also lead to trade conflicts. Through an extended employment effect model of international trade,this paper examines the impact of trade on China and the United States from 2001 to 2017. In the long run,there is a positive correlation between China and the United States ’imports and domestic employment,but the impact of exports on domestic employment is uncertain. For the United States,the growth of imports in the United States is conducive to employment,and exports are not conducive to employment;It shows that under the existing industrial structure of the United States,the employment creation caused by exports is less than the loss of employment,and the employment substitution effect of exports is also relatively large. For China,both exports and imports have a certain employment creation effect. The employment creation effect of imports is even greater,and the employment effect of imports and exports is significant. Judging by the impact of the trade dispute between China and the United States on employment,it is the increase in the ratio of Chinese imports to total imports of the United States that has not changed the United States exports.