气候变化对白蜡窄吉丁在中国不同地区的化性影响研究

The effects of climate change on voltinism of the emerald ash borer in different regions of China

【目的】探究当前以及未来气候变暖条件下白蜡窄吉丁Agrilus planipennis在中国各地区的世代发育特性,明确该虫对不同地区气候条件的响应规律,为其现有发生区和潜在分布区的精准监测与防控提供指导。【方法】基于白蜡窄吉丁天津种群的野外实际发育数据,以及2010-2020年全国各地的累年日均温、日最高温和最低温数据,采用双正弦模型估算当前以及未来温度升高1.5和2℃情景下白蜡窄吉丁整个世代的有效积温。在对该虫的化性进行预测的基础上,进一步评估当前累年年均温、年均最高温和最低温与其化性之间的关系。【结果】(1)以白蜡窄吉丁天津种群的实测数据为计算依据,其整个世代众数种群所需的有效积温为2519.9日·度。(2)当前气候条件下,白蜡窄吉丁在我国青海的年有效积温和化性最低,分别为1109.89日·度和2年1代;在海南最高,分别为5535.88日·度和1年2代;其他地区则均表现出随纬度降低而增加的趋势。白蜡窄吉丁在各省(自治区、直辖市)的化性与累年年均温、年均最高温和最低温之间均呈明显的线性相关关系,并与昆虫自身的纬度和海拔分布存在负相关关系。(3)未来温度升高1.5和2℃情境下,白蜡窄吉丁在我国各地区的年有效积温和化性均明显增加,其中年有效积温介于1000-3000日·度的省(自治区、直辖市)数量均减少,高于3000日·度的均增加;化性也呈类似的变化规律,在我国中南部表现尤为明显。【结论】若白蜡窄吉丁扩散到我国中南部等未发生区,则该虫很可能在当地建立种群并迅速发展。未来气候变暖条件下,该虫在我国各地区的发生和危害风险将进一步增加。

[Aim]The generational characteristics of the emerald ash borer(EAB),Agrilus planipennis,were explored under current and future global warming scenarios in China to determine the responses of EAB to various climatic conditions across different provincial administrative districts.The findings of this study will provide guidance for effective monitoring and control of EAB in areas currently affected by EAB infestations and those at risk of future spread.[Methods]Based on the developmental data of EAB in Tianjin,and the annual mean daily temperature,daily maximum,and minimum temperatures across China from 2010 to 2020,the double-sine-wave model was used to assess the effective accumulated temperature(EAT)throughout the entire lifecycle of EAB under current conditions,and 1.5 and 2℃global warming scenarios.Additionally,we estimated the current correlations between EAB voltinism and the annual mean,maximum,and minimum temperatures after predicting the voltinism of the pest in different provincial administrative districts in China.[Results]1)Using the Tianjin population as an example,the EAT of the entire EAB generation was estimated to be 2519.9 degree·days.2)Under current conditions,Qinghai Province recorded the lowest values for both EAT and voltinism,with 1109.89 degree·days and one generation every two years,respectively.Conversely,Hainan Province recorded the highest EAT and voltinism values with 5535.88 degree·days and two generations per year,respectively.Additionally,for the remaining 32 districts,EAT and voltinism increased with increasing latitude and altitude.There was a linear relationship between current voltinism of EAB and the three different annual temperatures.Additionally,there was a negative correlation between current voltinism and the latitudinal and altitudinal distributions of EAB.3)Under 1.5 and 2℃global warming scenarios,there was an increase in both the EAT and voltinism of EAB across China.When the EAT ranged between 1000 and 3000 degree·days,there was a decrease in the number of provincial administrative districts.However,an increase was observed when the EAT exceeded 3000 degree·days.Similar changes in voltinism were observed,particularly in central and southern China.[Conclusion]If EAB spreads into its potential distribution areas such as central and southern China,its population will likely establish rapidly,and continued global warming will exacerbate the risks of its spread and damage.