云杉花墨天牛在中国的风险分析

Risk of Monochamus saltuarius spreading in China

【目的】为研究云杉花墨天牛Monochamus saltuarius Gebler在我国扩散的风险性。【方法】本文利用BIOMOD2建模平台中的3个物种分布模型预测云杉花墨天牛适生区分布,从云杉花墨天牛的分布情况、潜在的经济危害性、寄主植物的分布和经济重要性、传播扩散的可能性和风险管理的难度5个方面对云杉花墨天牛进行风险分析。【结果】云杉花墨天牛在我国的适生区面积广泛,综合风险值R为2.05,属于高度危险的有害生物。【结论】云杉花墨天牛在我国高度危险,扩散到其他地区的风险性很高,需要制定检疫管理和除治措施,以期降低在我国的风险。

[Objectives]To estimate the risk of Monochamus saltuarius Gebler spreading in China.[Methods]Three species distribution models within the BIOMOD2 modeling platform were used to predict the future distribution of M.saltuarius.In addition,we analyzed five potential consequences of the spread of this pest:its future distribution,its potential economic impact,the economic importance of its host plants,the possibility of transmission and the difficulty of control and management.[Results]The synthetic risk index,R,is 2.05 indicating that M.saltuarius has the potential to become widely distributed.[Conclusion]M.saltuarius has the potential to become a widespread,economically significant,pest in China.Quarantine management and removal measures need to be formulated to reduce the risk posed by this pest.