某隧道突泥涌水灾害的致灾成因分析及危险性评价

Cause Analysis and Risk Assessment of Mud and Water Inrush Disaster of a Tunnel

为准确掌握隧道突泥涌水灾害的致灾成因,合理评价其危险性,该文基于隧址区地质条件及突泥涌水灾害特征,先开展致灾成因分析,再利用层次分析法和模糊理论进行灾害危险性评价。实例分析表明:隧道突泥涌水事故的成因是多方面的,主要包括工程地质因素、水文地质因素及工程施工因素等,前两因素属其客观因素,而工程施工因素则属其诱发因素,三者综合作用,促使了突泥涌水事故的发生。通过隧道突泥涌水灾害的危险性评价,得其整体危险性得分为71.95分,危险性等级为Ⅲ级,属欠安全状态,危险性偏高,应切实加强现场灾害防治,以确保安全施工。

In order to accurately grasp the causes of mud and water inrush disaster and reasonably evaluate its risk,based on the geological conditions of the tunnel site and the characteristics of mud and water inrush disaster,this paper first analyzes the causes of disaster,and then uses the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy theory to evaluate the disaster risk.The case analysis shows that the causes of tunnel mud and water inrush accidents are multifaceted,mainly including engineering geological factors,hydrogeological factors and engineering construction factors.The first two factors belong to objective factors,while the engineering construction factors belong to inducing factors.The comprehensive action of the three factors promotes the occurrence of mud and water inrush accidents.Through the risk assessment of mud and water inrush disaster in the tunnel,the overall risk score is 71.95 and the risk level is grade III.It is in an unstable state and the risk is high.The on-site disaster prevention and control should be strengthened to ensure safe construction.