基于三角模糊数与Shapley值辨识南宁地铁地下水风险

Identification of Groundwater Risk in Nanning Metro Based on Triangular Fuzzy Number and Shapley Value

地下水是地铁工程风险的主要致灾因素之一,进行地下水风险识别与评估对地铁建设意义重大。以南宁地铁工程地下水为研究对象,通过引入三角模糊数与Shapley值的风险辨识方法,充分分析风险辨识过程中数据之间的模糊性与方法指标间的独立性,构建地下水风险辨识模型,通过风险辨识模型计算,在整个地铁寿命过程中,发现施工风险对于地铁地下水风险的影响最为重大,其次为勘察阶段;更进一步发现地层结构及含水层划分、基坑抗突涌验算、防管涌、流砂等施工质量和现场抽水管理等指标影响较大。在地铁的建设过程中需加强各项指标的处理效果,计算结果为后续工程建设提供一定的借鉴。

The groundwater is one of the main disaster-causing factors of metro engineering risk. It has great significance for metro construction by identifying and evaluating groundwater risk. The groundwater of Nanning metro project is taking as the research object,through introducing the method of risk identification by triangular fuzzy numbers and Shapley values,the ambiguity between the data in the process of risk identification and the independence of the method indicators are fully analyzed,and a groundwater risk identification model is constructed. Through calculating by the risk identification model,it shows that,throughout the life of the subway,the construction risk has the most significant impact on the underground water risk of the subway,followed by the survey phase;Further more,it is found that the indicators such as stratum structure and aquifer division,foundation pit anti inrush checking calculation,anti piping,quicksand and other construction quality and on-site pumping management have greater impact.In the process of subway construction,it is necessary to strengthen the treatment effect of each indicator,and the calculation results provide a certain reference for the subsequent construction.