2022年全球多国猴痘暴发疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of multi-country outbreak of monkeypox in 2022

目的既往猴痘在西非和中非区域呈地方性流行。2022年5月以来,猴痘疫情在全球范围内迅速蔓延,部分国家已出现人际传播。世界卫生组织于7月23日宣布猴痘疫情构成“国际关注的突发公共卫生事件”(Public Health Emergency of International Concern,PHEIC)。在此情况下,评估猴痘病例输入我国并进一步引起本土传播的风险,为口岸疫情防控工作提供指导。方法根据世界卫生组织通报的猴痘疫情信息、疾病特征、各国采取的公共卫生应对措施和病毒基因组测序结果等资料,定性评估病例输入我国并进一步引起本土传播的风险。结果全球猴痘疫情呈持续上升趋势,影响范围不断扩大,在大部分国家解除了因新冠肺炎采取的出入境限制措施的情况下,猴痘疫情存在国际传播风险。鉴于猴痘病死率较高,猴痘病毒具备人际传播能力,我国尚无特异性抗病毒药物和可广泛使用的疫苗,病例输入我国后可进一步引起本土传播。结论经评估认为,猴痘病例输入我国并进一步引起本土传播的风险高。口岸需加强应急准备工作,有针对性做好高风险国家和地区入境人员的卫生检疫,对高危人群开展健康宣教。

Objective Monkeypox has historically been endemic in West and Central Africa.Monkeypox has spread around the world since May 2022,and human-to-human transmission has occurred in several countries.On July 23,the WHO declared the monkeypox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.Therefore,in order to provide guidance for the prevention and control of monkeypox at Chinese border ports,the risk of monkeypox cases importing into China and leading to local transmission was assessed.Methods The risk was qualitatively assessed based on the epidemic information reported by the WHO,disease characteristics,combined with the public health measures taken by affected countries and the results of virus genome sequencing.Results The global monkeypox epidemic continues to rise,and the distribution range of cases continues to expand.With most countries lifting the entry-exit restrictions imposed by COVID-19,there is a risk of international spread of the monkeypox case.In view of the high mortality of monkeypox and the evidence for human-to-human transmission of virus,as well as there are no specific antiviral drugs and widely used vaccines in China,further local transmission caused by imported cases may occur.Conclusion The risk of monkeypox cases importing into China and leading to local transmission was assessed to be high.It is necessary to strengthen emergency preparedness and health quarantine for inbound personnel from high-risk countries and regions,and carry out health education for international travelers at high risk for monkeypox at Chinese border ports.