基于实测能耗数据的农宅供暖能耗影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Heating Energy Consumption of Rural Residence Based on Measured Energy Consumption Data

本文对赤峰市随机抽取的64户农宅的周供暖能耗进行现场测试,获得了实际运行过程中的供暖能耗数据,从经济水平、教育程度、家庭人员、能源政策、地理位置、室外环境参数、建筑本体特性、人员行为8大方面,采用可有效解决共线性及自变量个数多于样本量问题的偏最小二乘法分析了赤峰市农村住宅的供暖能耗影响因素。结果表明,显著影响农村住宅供暖能耗的因素由大到小的排序为:供暖面积、室内外累积温差、供暖房间数量、供暖方式、距镇上的距离、外墙面积、是否与公路相邻、建筑面积、南向窗墙比、是否有阳光间、青年人比例、建筑总房间数、建造年份、建筑的综合传热系数、人口数量、北向窗墙比,其中影响最显著的前3个因素均与农户供暖需求密切相关,而家庭收入、教育程度、燃料价格均未对农宅供暖能耗产生显著影响。

This paper conducted a field test for the weekly heating energy consumption of 64 rural residences randomly selected from Chifeng,Inner Mongolia,obtaining the real operation data of heating energy consumption.Influencing factors were analyzed from 8 aspects,including the economic level,the educational level,the energy policy,the geographic position,outdoor environment parameters,building performances and personnel behaviors.Influencing factors on the heating energy consumption of rural residences in Chifeng were analyzed based on the partial least squares(PLS),which can effectively solve the problems of multi-collinearity and the number of independent variable being greater than the number of samples.The results show that the ranking of the significant influencing factors in descending order is heated area,cumulative temperature differences between indoor and outdoor air,the number of heated rooms,the ways of heating,the distance from the town,the external wall area,the distance from the highway,the building area,the window-to-wall ratio in south,whether there is a sunshine room,the ratio of young people,the number of rooms in the building,the time of construction,the integrated heat transfer coefficient of building,the number of family members and the window-to-wall ratio in north.Of which,the three most significant influencing factors are closely related with the heating demand of rural households,whereas,the family income,the educational level and the fuel price have no significance influence on the heating energy consumption of rural residences.