基于双重差分模型的中欧班列对城市外向经济的影响研究

Research on the Impact of China-Europe Trains on Urban Outward-Oriented Economy Based on Double Difference Model

随着依托于"一带一路"的中欧班列物流体系日渐完善,沿途国家间的贸易往来逐渐加深,丝绸之路从原先的"商贸路"变成产业和人口集聚的"经济带"。本文采用双重差分方法,以2004—2016年中国268个地级城市面板数据为研究样本,实证检验中欧班列的开通对城市外向经济发展的影响。研究发现,中欧班列的开通使得城市外向经济度提升了34%,其中,促进产业发展是主要途径。在此基础上,本文将城市按照不同标准分类,发现规模较大的城市、西部地区城市外向经济发展受中欧班列开通的影响更大,该结论提醒研究者关注中欧班列对各类区域细分市场的差异性影响。本文对优化城市外向经济格局,发展城市外向型经济具有一定的启示。

As the logistics system of China-Europe trains relying on the“Belt and Road”Initiative is gradually perfecting and trade between countries along the route has gradually deepened,the Silk Road has changed from the original“commerce and trade road”to an“economic belt”with industrial and population concentration.We adopted the double difference method,using the panel data of 268 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2016 as a research sample to empirically test the impact of the opening of the China-Europe trains on the outward-oriented economic development of cities.The study found that the opening of China-Europe trains promoted the development of cities’outward-oriented economy by 34%,and the promotion of industrial development was the main way.On this basis,the paper categorizes cities according to different standards.The study finds that larger cities and cities in the western region are more affected by the opening of China-Europe trains,which reminds researchers to pay attention to the differential impact of China-Europe Express trains on various regional market segments.This conclusion has certain enlightenment for optimizing the city’s outward-oriented economic pattern and developing the city’s outward-oriented economy.