房地产价格与通货膨胀关系的实证研究——以成都市为例

An Experimental Study on the Relationship between Real Estate Price and Inflation——Taking the City of Chengdu as an Example

本文通过房地产价格与通货膨胀关系正向和逆向影响的理论分析,得出房地产价格和通货膨胀是相互影响的关系,但两者之间是否互为因果关系,需要进行实证分析。本文基于成都市2006年1月到2017年10月的月度相关数据,进行了房地产价格指数和居民消费者价格指数(通货膨胀的替代指标)的实证研究。研究结果表明,两个变量对数化处理后,满足Ⅰ(1)阶单整序列要求,采用EngleGranger两步检验法进行协整关系检验,利用协整分析结果与ECM误差修正模型,验证了房地产价格与通货膨胀之间存在着的长期均衡及短期波动的关系。通过格兰杰因果关系检验,得出房地产价格和通货膨胀之间存在一定的单向关系,即通货膨胀对房地产价格存在显著影响,但房地产价格对通货膨胀的影响不是特别显著。由此,建议政府注意控制物价水平,采取相应措施控制通货膨胀,防止通货膨胀引起房地产价格上涨幅度加快,由于房地产价格对通货膨胀的影响较弱,所以控制通货膨胀时不要过多考虑房地产价格的影响。

This study present the positive correlation and inverse relationship between real estate prices and inflation,pointing out their mutual impact on each other.However,a further study is still needed to analyze whether there is a causal relationship between the two still merits further study.Based on the monthly data of real estate price index and consumer price index from January of 2006 to October of 2017 in Chengdu,a study is conducted concerning real estate price index and consumer price index(an indicator for inflation).After being treated using logarithm,the two variables can meet the requirement of being integrated of order 1.Then,Engle-Granger is used to test cointegration.The result of co-integration test and Error Correction Model proved the long-term linear relationship and short-term fluctuating relationship between real estate price and inflation.Additionally,Granger causal relationship test suggests there is a certain one-way relationship between real estate price and inflation.That is,inflation has a significant impact on real estate price,but real estate price does not significantly affect inflation.Therefore,we suggested that the government can pay attention to the control of the price level,take corresponding measures to control inflation and to prevent inflation that has caused a faster increase in real estate prices.As the impact of real estate prices on inflation is weak,less consideration should be given to the impact of real estate prices,and other effective measures should be taken to control inflation.