基于系统动力学的小城镇可持续建设水平动态评估

Dynamic Evaluation of Sustainable Construction Level for Small Towns Based on System Dynamics

随着城镇化建设的深入推进,小城镇不可持续建设已成为影响城乡区域协调发展的瓶颈。为有效推动小城镇可持续建设,科学地认识和评价其可持续建设水平是首要任务。本文基于系统动力学方法,从人口—经济—社会—资源环境维度构建了小城镇可持续建设水平评价模型,并利用梁平县相关数据,对其在现状延续、投资驱动、产业转型3种情景方案下的可持续建设水平进行动态评估。结果表明:①应用系统动力学克服了以往评价方法"重现状、轻预测"的局限,能有效地评估小城镇可持续建设水平;②3种情景方案中投资驱动方案为最优,可见加大投资力度能显著提升小城镇可持续建设整体水平,但需注意同时也可能加剧其资源环境压力。建议小城镇建立多元化、包容性的融资渠道、转型升级传统产业并培育产业造血功能,以促进其可持续发展。

With the deepening of urbanization,the unsustainable problem of small towns has become the main bottleneck affecting the coordinated development of urban and rural areas.To effectively promote the sustainable construction of small towns,the priority is to understand and evaluate the sustainable construction level scientifically.Based on system dynamics(SD),We built an evaluation model for the sustainable construction level of small towns from four perspectives including population,economy,society,resource and environment.We applied the model to dynamically evaluating the sustainable construction level in three different scenarios including status continuation mode,investment driving mode and industrial transformation mode,by using the data of Liangping County.The result shows that:①the application of SD overcomes the limitation of traditional evaluation methods such as"emphasizing status evaluations,lacking of prediction",which can evaluate the sustainable construction level of small towns effectively;②the investment driving mode is the optimal scenario,and increasing investment for small towns can significantly improve the sustainable construction level,but it may also intensify the pressure of resource and environment.To promote the sustainable development,small towns were suggested to establish diversified and inclusive financing channels,transform and upgrade traditional industry and enhance endogenous driving forces.