人口老龄化对经济发展影响的机理与测度

Impact of Population Aging on Economic Development: Mechanism and Measurement

科学认识人口老化对经济发展的影响机理,有利于经济社会更快实现高质量发展。基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究发现,人口老化会抑制经济发展,供给侧的人力资本、技术革新与需求侧的社会保障支出发挥正向调节作用。然而,随着人口老化进程加快,上述机制的正效应会发生变化,即当人口老化跨越门槛值时,人力资本、社会保障支出对经济发展的边际正效应呈现递减趋势,技术革新对经济发展的边际正效应逐步加强。鉴于此,制定并实施弹性延迟退休政策,进一步加大人力资本投资和促进技术革新,深化改革与不断优化社会保障制度,把握好社会保障支出与经济社会发展之间的互动协调关系是积极应对人口老化的有效手段。

Scientific understanding of the mechanism of the impact of population aging on economic development will advantage for faster achievement of high-quality economic and social development.Based on provincial panel data in China,an empirical study finds that population aging inhibits economic development,among which human capital and technical innovation on the supply side,and social security spending on the demand side all play positive moderating roles.However,as population aging accelerates,the positive impacts of these mechanisms change.When population aging crosses the threshold,the marginal positive impacts of human capital and social security spending on economic development tend to diminish,while this impact of technical innovation gradually strengthen.In the light of this,in the process of actively addressing aging population,it is effective to formulate and implement a flexible delayed retirement policy,increase human capital investment,promote technical innovation,deepen the reform of the social security system and continuously optimize it,grasp the interactive coordination relationship between social security spending and socio-economic development.