货币政策与影子银行对房价的联动影响——基于我国省级面板模型的实证分析

The Linked Effect of Monetary Policy and Shadow Bank on Real Estate Prices in China——An Empirical Analysis based on the China’s Provincial Panel Model

在我国房地产市场"量价齐升"的发展背景下,政府意在通过紧缩货币政策来收紧传统银行信贷,使房价"降温",但政策的实施往往未达到预期效果。究其原因不难发现,我国影子银行作为传统融资方式的一种补充,在一定程度上对我国的房地产价格起到支持作用。那么在二者的共同作用下对房价的影响效果究竟如何?文章通过构建RBC模型进行了理论分析,基于我国2014-2018年全国31个省份的面板数据,按全国及三个经济地区层面分析了货币政策与影子银行对房价的联动影响。结果表明,紧缩货币政策的确可以平抑房价的大幅上涨,但是由于影子银行不受传统融资政策的限制,反而成为房地产企业的另一条融资渠道,在一定程度上助推了房价的提升,削弱了货币政策效果。基于结论,文章对进一步稳定房价、强化货币政策效果以及规范我国影子银行的发展等提出了相关建议。

In the context of the development of China’s real estate market of"volume and price rise",the government intends to tighten the traditional bank credit by tightening the monetary policy,so that the house price"cools down",but the implementation of the policy often fails to achieve the expected results.The reason is not difficult to find,that is partly because China’s shadow banking,as a supplement to the traditional financing method,plays a certain supporting role in housing prices.So what is the effect of the impact of the two on housing prices?The theoretical model is analyzed through constructing the RBC model,and based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2014 to 2018,the linkage effect of monetary policy and shadow banking on house prices is analyzed according to national and economic regional level.The results show that the tightening of monetary policy can indeed suppress the sharp rise of house prices,but due to shadow banks are not restricted by traditional financing policies,they have become another financing channel for real estate companies,which has helped to boost housing prices to a certain extent.Based on the conclusions,this article provides relevant suggestions for further stabilizing housing prices,strengthening the effects of monetary policy,and regulating the development of shadow banking in China.