交通投资与旅游经济空间集聚研究——基于空间面板回归模型

Tourism Economic Effect and Spatial Agglomeration Analysis of Transportation Investment——Based on Spatial Panel Regression Model

文章基于2000-2018年的省级面板数据,建立混合最小二乘法回归模型、一般面板固定效应回归模型及空间面板杜宾模型,分析了不同地区、不同时间交通投资对旅游经济发展的作用及空间集聚影响,检验结果显示交通投资对旅游经济增长具有显著作用。在考虑空间自相关的情况下,交通投资促进旅游经济发展的显著性和作用程度都显著降低。交通投资对旅游经济的影响有较大的区域差异,东部、中部、西部区域空间面板杜宾模型系数呈现依次递减。不同时间段,交通投资对旅游经济发展会产生一定的时滞影响。交通投资总体上有利于旅游经济集聚,旅游经济发生了从空间集聚到分散的变化。当期交通投资有助于旅游经济的空间集聚,而前期交通投资的投入,一定程度上有利于旅游经济活动的空间扩散。

This study based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2018,establish a hybrid least squares regression model,general panels fixed effects regression model and space Durbin model,analyzes the different regions,different time transport investment impact on the role of the tourism economic development and spatial agglomeration,check out the conclusion according to traffic investment has significant effect on tourism economy growth.The research shows that considering spatial autocorrelation,the significance and effect of transportation investment on promoting tourism economic development are significantly reduced.The influence of transportation investment on tourism economy varies greatly from region to region.In the eastern,central and western regions,the Durbin model coefficient of the spatial panel decreases successively.In different time periods,transportation investment has a certain time delay effect on the development of tourism economy.On the whole,transportation investment is beneficial to the agglomeration of tourism economy,which changes from spatial agglomeration to decentralization.The current transportation investment is conducive to the spatial agglomeration of tourism economy,while to a certain extent,the investment in transportation in the early stage is beneficial to the spatial diffusion of tourism economic activities.