南方稻作区化肥施用强度时空演变及驱动因素研究

A Study of the Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Fertilizer Application Intensity in Southern Rice Cultivation Area

基于南方稻作区2001—2018年设区市面板数据,探讨了南方稻作区化肥施用强度的时空演变特征,并运用探索性空间分析方法和空间杜宾模型实证分析了南方稻作区化肥施用强度的驱动因素。研究表明:在时间上,南方稻作区化肥施用强度处于先波动上升再波动下降趋势。在空间上,该区域化肥施用强度空间集聚效应明显,沿海地区大部分表现为"高-高"集聚特征,内陆地区大部分表现为"低-低"集聚特征,沿海地区化肥施用强度总体高于内陆地区,化肥施用强度存在显著的空间正自相关性和时间滞后性。农村居民人均收入、人均耕地面积、农业种植结构、农业技术进步是影响化肥施用强度的重要驱动因素。

Based on the panel data of the cities with districts in the southern rice cultivation area from 2001 to 2018,this paper explores the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of fertilizer application intensity in the southern rice cultivation area,and it uses ESDA and SDM to empirically analyze the driving factors on fertilizer application intensity in the southern rice cultivation area.The results show that in terms of time,the fertilizer application intensity in the southern rice cultivation area fluctuates and presents a tendency of first rising then falling.In terms of space,the spatial agglomeration effect of fertilizer application intensity in this region is particularly obvious.Most of the coastal areas are characterized by"high-high"agglomeration,and most inland areas are characterized by"low-low"agglomeration,while the fertilizer application intensity in coastal areas is generally higher than that in inland areas;there exist significant spatial positive autocorrelation and time lag in fertilizer application intensity.The important driving factors on fertilizer application intensity are rural residents’per capita income,per capita arable land,agricultural planting structure,and agricultural technology progress.