通用弹药铁路运输风险影响因素分析

Analysis on Risk factors of Railway Transportation of General Ammunition

为提高通用弹药铁路运输安全水平,针对通用弹药铁路运输的风险情况,在识别通用弹药铁路运输风险影响因素体系的基础上,构建基于DEMATEL-AISM法的通用弹药铁路运输风险影响因素模型,着重分析影响因素之间的作用关系和影响程度。结果表明:安全管理制度、弹药自身性质、弹药包装、车厢性能状况以及教育培训水平属于重要性和原因性最强的5个因素,据此提出完善安全管理制度、提升教育培训水平、降低弹药自身隐患影响3个方面建议。

To improve the safety level of railway transportation of general ammunition,in view of the risk situation of railway transportation of general ammunition,this paper firstly identifies the risk influencing factors system of railway transportation of general ammunition.Then,it establishes a risk influencing factors model of railway transportation of general ammunition based on DEMATEL-AISM,and analyzes the relationship and influence degree between the influencing factors.The results show that the five most important and causal factors are the safety management system,the nature of ammunition,ammunition packaging,carriage performance,and the education and training level,and it puts forward some suggestions from three aspects of improving the safety management system,enhancing education and training level,and reducing the hidden danger of general ammunition.