环境冲突政治风险的生成机理与防控策略

Formation Mechanism and the Prevention and Control Strategy for the Political Risks of Environmental Conflict

环境冲突政治风险是指由环境问题引发的社会冲突,导致国家主流意识形态受到挑战,政府合法性遭到质疑,在一定区域甚至全国范围出现社会失序、政治不稳甚至动荡的可能性及造成这种可能性的因素。环境冲突政治风险的生成以风险源、风险积累、扩散与转化、风险爆发为传导路径,经历环境风险-环境冲突-政治风险-政治事件的演化过程。风险感知差异、风险叠加联动、风险治理失败对风险放大与转化具有加速作用。应以环境冲突政治风险演化过程为依据,建立多阶段多维度风险防范体系,其中多维度风险防控包括心理维度、技术维度和治理体系维度的防控策略集合。

The political risks of environmental conflict refer to the social conflicts caused by environmental problems leading to challenges to the mainstream national ideology,doubts of the legitimacy of the government,possibilities or factors of social disorder,political instability,and/or turbulence in a certain region or even the whole country.The origination,accumulation,transformation and outbreak of the risks evolve from environmental risks,environmental conflicts,political risks to political incidents in the end.This paper reveals the acceleration effect of risk perception differences,risk superposition linkages and risk governance failures on the amplification and transformation of risks.Based on the evolutionary process of the political risks of environmental conflict,a multi-stage and multi-dimensional risk prevention system is established involving psychological,technical,and governance system dimensions.