“十三五”期间南京市江宁区土地利用变化特征及影响因素研究

“Thirteen Five”Period Jiangning District Land Use Change and Influencing Factors

土地利用是地区发展的必要产物,研究其空间分布变化特征及影响因素能够有效地反映地区经济的特征性。依据2016年、2020年南京市江宁区土地利用类型数据和社会经济数据,分别从空间、时间角度分析“十三五”期间江宁区土地利用类型的变化特征,并结合地区生产总值、人口数量、农业生产总值、劳动力数量和土地面积等数据分析其变化的可能性影响因素。研究发现江宁区土地类型分布以耕地、林地和建设用地为主,其中林地在横溪街道、禄口街道及江宁街道呈递增趋势,而耕地在湖熟街道和淳化街道呈递减趋势;利用土地转移变化分析可知林地的转入类型主要为耕地、建设用地,其次为水域;采用最小二乘回归分析其变化的影响因素得出林地的转入受地区生产总值的影响较大,而耕地的转出与农业生产总值联系较为紧密。

Land use is a necessary product of regional development,and studying its spatial distribution change characteristics and influencing factors can effectively reflect the characteristics of the regional economy.Based on the land use type data and socio—economic data of Jiangning district,Nanjing city in 2016 and 2020,this study analyzes the change characteristics of land use types in Jiangning district during the 13th Five—Year Plan period from the perspective of space and time,and combines the regional GDP,data analysis of population,agricultural production value,labor force,land area and other factors affect the possibility of changes.The study concluded that the distribution of land types in Jiangning district is dominated by cultivated land,woodland and construction land.Among them,the forest land in Hengxi street,Lukou street and Jiangning street showed an increasing trend,while the cultivated land showed a decreasing trend in Hushu street and Chunhua street.The transfer change analysis shows that the transfer type of forest land is mainly cultivated land and construction land,followed by water area.The least square regression is used to analyze the influencing factors of the change,and it is concluded that the transfer of forest land is greatly affected by the regional GDP.The export value of agricultural production is closely linked.