一种顾及人口迁徙特征的COVID-19疫情时空分布规律研究

A Study on the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of COVID-19 Epidemic Considering the Characteristics of Population Migration

新型冠状病毒的传播与人员流动情况密切相关,越是人口稠密、人员流动性强的地区,其疫情大规模暴发的风险越大。以江苏省为研究区,基于各地市卫健委公布的疫情数据和百度慧眼迁徙数据,使用时空分析方法,对江苏省新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情进行了回顾,探讨了江苏省COVID-19疫情发生的时空规律,在此基础上发现病例较多城市的特点为人口基数大、人员流动性大;疫区人口迁徙和疫情扩散强相关;建议进行疫情防控大数据平台建设,及时追踪疫情发生、传播的路径和趋势,精准挖掘高危人群的活动轨迹,做到精准社区防控。

The spread of 2019-nCoV is closely related to the flow of people.The more densely populated and highly mobile areas are,the greater the risk of large-scale outbreaks.This paper takes Jiangsu Province as the research area.Based on the epidemic data published by the Health Commision of each city and the migration data of Baidu,using the method of time-space analysis,this paper reviews the epidemic situation of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province,discusses the time-space rule of the occurrence of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province.On this basis,it is found that cities with more cases are characterized by large population base and large mobility of people,population migration and epidemic spread in epidemic areas are strongly related.It is suggested to build a big data platform for epidemic prevention and control,timely track the path and trend of epidemic occurrence and transmission,accurately mine the activity track of high-risk groups,and achieve accurate community prevention and control.