马尔萨斯中国人口理论的终结:江南的传染病与流行病学转型(1912—1953)

The End of Malthusian Population Theory in China:Infectious Diseases and Epidemiological Transition in the Jiangnan,1912-1953

传染病一直是影响历史时期中国人口数量和死亡率最主要的因素。随着现代传染病学的建立及公共卫生措施的实施,传染病逐渐不再是人口死亡的主要原因,这在中国历史上是一个重大的转变。本文选择中国经济和现代医学都很发达的江南,通过传染病统计资料和调查资料,除了从定量的角度讨论传染病对于人口死亡的影响,还试图了解其影响人口死亡的具体方式,以及疾病谱何时发生根本改变。研究表明,中国流行病学转型最终完成于1954年,相对西方来说较晚。尽管如此,这一转型在中国人口历史上仍具有里程碑意义。

Infectious diseases had always been the most important factor affecting China's population and mortality in historical periods.However,infectious diseases gradually no longer play a major role in population death with the establishment of modern epidemiology and the implementation of public health measures,which is a major change in Chinese history.This paper explores survey data on infectious diseases of the Jiangnan region—China's most developed region in both economy and modern medicine,discusses the impact of infectious diseases on population death from a quantitative perspective,in so doing,tries to understand influencing factors of population mortality and the time node when the disease spectrum changes radically.It shows that the epidemiological transformation was finally completed relatively late comparing to the West,in 1954.Nonetheless,this completion is a milestone in China's population history.