证券市场发展与货币政策银行信贷渠道效果:弱化抑或放大

The Impact of Securities Market Development on the China's Monetary Policy Bank Lending Channels

数量型的信贷渠道向价格型的利率渠道的转型,是新时期优化货币政策传导机制的关键。从金融结构是决定货币政策传导“介质”的逻辑出发,本文研究了证券市场发展对中国货币政策银行信贷渠道传导效果的动态影响。文章在IS-LM-CC模型的基础上构建了拓展理论框架并提出了相应假说,然后运用2007—2017年中国上市银行和上市公司的面板数据对假说进行了实证检验。研究得到了如下结论:一是证券市场的发展会弱化货币政策银行信贷传导渠道的效果,说明转型时期中国金融结构的多样化确实弱化了经济中的金融摩擦程度。二是从银行外部融资的角度来看,证券市场发展弱化货币政策银行信贷渠道的一个重要机制是通过改善不同类型银行资产和负债结构间的替代弹性实现的。三是从企业外部融资的角度来看,证券市场发展弱化货币政策银行信贷渠道的另一个机制是增强了企业外部融资的可替代性。文章的政策含义是,价格型货币政策调控体系的构建是一个全面市场化改革和优化经济金融结构的长期系统工程,这一目标不可能通过简单地放开利率管制一蹴而就,优化金融结构和夯实金融微观基础,对于中国这样的发展中国家具有更为基本的重要性。

Based on the relevant literatures on the development of the securities market and monetary policy at home and abroad,this paper built the extended IS-LM-CC model based on the previous research and the reality of China,and proposed the corresponding hypothesis.Using the panel data of Chinese listed banks and listed companies in 2007-2017,an empirical test was carried out on the proposed hypothesis.The results of this paper show that the development of the securities market will weaken the transmission effect of the monetary policy bank lending channel,and this weakening effect is more obvious among small and medium-sized banks.This weakening effect is mainly reflected in the two links of the commercial bank loan supply and the corporate financing constraints.For the China's commercial banks,the development of the securities market will change its debt substitution elasticity and asset substitution flexibility,then facilitate banks to complete asset conversion in the securities market at a lower cost in the face of tightening or loose monetary policy,and enhance bank liquidity.In order to cope with the shrinking or surplus of bank credit;it will also promote banks to implement active debt business,such as issuing financial bonds,interbank deposits,etc.to improve the bank's debt structure,thereby weakening the transmission effect of monetary policy banks'credit channels.For enterprises,the development of the securities market has alleviated the financing constraints of Chinese enterprises,and the amelioration of financing constraints for large enterprises is even greater.The development of the securities market encourages enterprises to develop financing channels,which is conducive to direct financing of enterprises,increase the financing capacity and mortgage capacity of enterprises,and make the irreplaceability of bank loans in corporate financing less.At the same time,it also strengthened the inter-bank competition,which prompted banks to develop technologies that cost lower loans to enterprises,thereby weakening the financing constraints of enterprises and further weakening the transmission effect of the monetary policy bank lending channels.