中国省级贸易开放与通货膨胀波动性

Trade Openness and Inflation Volatility at Provincial Level

本文运用1994—2014年中国30个省级面板数据,设计地理工具变量进行面板回归,研究我国贸易开放度与通胀波动性之间的关系。我们发现,样本区间内中国国内通胀率的波动性与贸易开放度成正相关关系。在此基础上,本文又进一步构造面板交互项,分析贸易开放对通胀波动性的作用机制。结果表明,贸易开放度对通胀波动具有熨平效应,特别是随着通胀水平的上升,这种熨平效应越发强化。在货币当局权衡产出—通胀的决策过程中,这种熨平效应将对国内通胀稳定的维持产生重大作用。

By using panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1994—2014,designing geographical instrument variable for panel regression,the relationship between trade openness and inflation volatility in China is empirically studied.It is found that there is positive correlation between trade openness and inflation volatility in sample spacing domestically.On this basis,how trade openness impacts on inflation volatility is analyzed by further construction of panel interactive items in this paper.It is stated that trade openness can relieve inflation volatility in China,especially a more reinforcement of relief with a higher inflation level.During the trade-off decision process for monetary authority,the relief effect will play a major role in keeping domestic inflation steady.