碳减排政策对商业银行的影响研究

本文通过构建包含金融加速器机制的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,刻画了商业银行的动态运行机制,研究了七类碳减排政策对商业银行的影响。研究发现,七类政策通过金融加速器机制影响企业资产负债结构,通过资本金动态调整机制影响商业银行资产负债结构。脉冲响应结果表明,七类政策均有效激励了绿色企业、约束了棕色企业,促进了经济的绿色低碳转型。基于以上分析,本文提出如下建议:惩罚性碳减排政策会给商业银行带来一定风险,需谨慎使用;直接影响商业银行利润的绿色信贷贴息和棕色信贷罚息政策,影响程度远超直接影响企业利润的碳排放补贴和碳税政策,需小幅度渐进使用;各项碳减排政策需互相配合,一方面促进碳排放量降低,另一方面防止经济收缩和商业银行风险加剧。

This paper constructs a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE)model that incorporates the financial accelerator mechanism to depict the dynamic operation mechanism of commercial banks,and studies the impact of seven types of carbon emission reduction policies on commercial banks.We find that the seven types of policies affect the asset-liability structure of enterprises through the financial accelerator mechanism and affect the asset-liability structure of commercial banks through the dynamic adjustment mechanism of capital.The impulse response results show that all seven types of policies effectively motivate green enterprises,constrain brown enterprises,and promote the green low-carbon transformation of the economy.Based on the above analysis,this paper proposes the following suggestions:punitive carbon emission reduction policies will bring certain risks to commercial banks and need to be used cautiously;the green credit discount interest rate and brown credit penalty interest rate policies that directly affect the profits of commercial banks have a much greater impact than the carbon emission subsidies and carbon tax policies that directly affect the profits of enterprises,and need to be used gradually with small adjustments;all carbon emission reduction policies need to work together to reduce carbon emissions on the one hand,and prevent economic contraction and increased risks for commercial banks on the other hand.