经济增长目标会影响地方金融发展吗——基于政府干预的视角

为了实现既定的经济增长目标,地方政府会积极干预金融资源配置。文章将经济增长目标作为“有为政府”干预金融市场的代理变量,通过研究我国2003—2019年290个地级市的经济增长目标数据,得出以下结论:经济增长目标降低了金融发展深度,与金融机构贷款规模呈倒U型关系。异质性分析表明,地方政府财政压力会增强经济增长目标对金融发展的负面影响,而市场化水平的提高和经济发展转型则能降低经济增长目标对金融发展的负面影响。进一步研究发现,经济增长目标通过降低金融资源配置效率和挤出流向工业及商业领域的贷款影响地方金融发展。本研究拓展了有关金融发展中“有为政府”与“有效市场”关系的认识,对深化金融供给侧结构性改革、助推经济高质量发展具有一定参考价值。

To achieve the preset economic growth target,local governments actively intervene in the allocation of financial resources.This study examines the relationship between economic growth targets and financial development using data from 290 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2019.The findings reveal a significant negative relationship between the depth of financial development and economic growth targets,as well as an inverted U-shaped relationship between the loan scale of financial institutions and economic growth targets.Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that fiscal pressure on local governments intensifies the negative impact of economic growth targets on financial development.However,an increase in the level of regional marketization and economic development transition can mitigate the negative impact of economic growth targets on financial development.Furthermore,our research highlights that economic growth targets affect financial development by reducing the efficiency of financial resource allocation and crowding out loans to the industrial and commercial sectors.These findings contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between an“effective government”and an“efficient market”in financial development.Additionally,they provide valuable insights for supply-side structural reform in financial sector in promoting high-quality economic growth.