我国养老保险基金的精算平衡与可持续性研究

《降低社会保险费率综合方案》调整了养老保险缴费和计发基数的工资口径,且缴费比例由28%下调至24%,这一双重调整将会影响我国城镇职工基本养老保险基金的精算平衡程度和可持续性。本文通过构建基金统筹账户和个人账户的精算模型,利用PADIS-INT软件预测我国城镇参保人口数,对降费综合方案实施前后的城镇职工养老保险基金进行具体测算;在此基础上,结合退休年龄、个人账户记账利率和养老金增长率三种参数调整机制进行敏感性分析,探索缴费率进一步下调空间。研究结果表明:仅降低缴费率会加重基金支付负担,结合缴费基数“双降”调整则会提高基金支付能力和精算平衡程度;任一参数的优化调整,均可缓解基金支付压力;综合调整各参数后,基金累计结余可持续至2075年。若将缴费率进一步下调至20%,基金累计结余可维持至2050年。可见,综合降费政策可有效改善我国城镇职工养老基金的收支状况;在综合优化模型参数情况下,缴费率可进一步下调,从而减轻企业负担,增强基金精算平衡性和可持续性。

The"Comprehensive Plan for Reducing Social Insurance Premium Rate"implemented in 2019 has adjusted the wage caliber of the pension insurance contribution base,and the contribution proportion has also been reduced from 28%to 24%.The dual adjustment is bound to affect the revenue and expenditure situation of China's urban workers'basic pension insurance fund.Based on the population prediction software PADIS-INT,this paper forecasts the urban insured population in China,makes a specific calculation of the revenue and expenditure of the pension insurance fund by constructing the actuarial model of the public account and individual account before and after the implementation of the scheme.Then,it analyzes the policy effectiveness of three parameter adjustment mechanisms:retirement age,personal account interest rate and pension growth rate,and explores the space for further reduction of the contribution rate.The research shows that only reducing the contribution rate will increase the payment pressure of the fund,but the"dual reduction"adjustment combined with the contribution base will improve the payment capacity of the fund and reduce the size of the deficit.After the adjustment of any parameter,the fund's payment capacity will be improved.After comprehensively the adjustment of various parameters,the cumulative balance of the fund will last until 2075.At this time,the contribution rate can be further reduced to 20%,and the cumulative balance can still be maintained until 2050.It can be seen that the comprehensive fee reduction policy in 2019 has improved the revenue and expenditure dilemma of China's urban workers'basic pension fund.Under the condition of comprehensively optimizing the parameters of the system model,there is space for the decline of China's urban pension insurance contribution,which can further reduce the burden of enterprises and enhance the actuarial balance and sustainability of the fund system.