政府性融资担保是否降低了普惠小微贷款违约风险

提升政府性融资担保的风险缓释效应,对完善普惠金融风险分担机制、实现普惠金融可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于我国某省2019—2021年普惠小微贷款微观数据,实证研究了政府性担保的风险缓释特点。研究发现:第一,政府性担保对普惠小微贷款的风险缓释效应主要体现在贷前阶段,对贷后阶段的风险缓释作用有限。从现实看,保证人专业性不足引致的贷后监督失责是造成这一现象的主要原因。第二,尽管政府性担保提高了贷后违约率,但政府提供的协助追偿能有效抑制不良贷款演变为最终损失的可能,因此商业银行仍倾向于发放政府性担保贷款。第三,防御型经营模式不能帮助政府性担保机构降低贷款违约率,低资本金、低放大倍数和高费率的经营模式面临更高贷款违约风险。第四,异质性分析表明,政府性担保的贷前风险缓释效应在低信用评级企业和首贷户中更明显,而贷后风险缓释效应在上述企业中的体现并不明显。文章研究结论对探明政府性担保风险点,推动普惠金融可持续发展具有一定实践指导意义。

Improving the government financing guarantee is a key link to promote the sustainable development of Inclusive Finance.Based on the case-by-case data of inclusive small and micro loans in a province of China from 2019 to 2021,this paper empirically studies the characteristics of the risk mitigation mechanism of the government guarantee.The research findings are as follows:first,the risk mitigation effect of government guarantee on inclusive small and micro loans is mainly concentrated in the pre-loan stage,and the risk mitigation effect on the post-loan stage is limited.The main reason for this phenomenon is the lack of professionalism of the guarantor.Second,although the default rate of government-guaranteed loans is high,the assistance provided by the government for recovery can effectively inhibit the possibility of non-performing loans evolving into final losses.Therefore,commercial banks still tend to issue government-guaranteed loans.Third,the defensive business model with low capital,low magnification and high rate can not reduce the default rate of inclusive small and micro loans,and the government guarantee institutions will face greater risk of loan default.Fourth,the heterogeneity analysis shows that the pre-loan risk mitigation effect of government guarantee is more obvious in the enterprises with low credit rating and first loan households,while the post-loan risk mitigation effect is not effectively reflected in the above enterprises.This study has practical significance for exploring the risk points of government guarantee and promoting the sustainable development of inclusive finance.