碳减排、转型风险与监管应对——基于DSGE的政策模拟研究

Carbon Emission Reduction, Transition Risks and Financial Regulation——Perspective from the Policy Simulation of the DSGE Model

本文应用动态随机一般均衡模型,通过开展多情景政策模拟及数值分析,考察了碳减排约束(以碳税为例)对转型风险的影响以及监管应对策略。考察结果显示:放慢征税节奏、政策沟通先行,可增强碳税政策的稳定性,缓解转型风险;金融与实体经济间“循环反馈”式传导路径,可放大碳税转型风险。碳税与监管工具搭配的结果表明:通过对银行棕色、绿色资产实施差别监管,可优化银行资产结构,显著提高银行和整个金融体系的韧性,有效遏制转型风险放大作用;综合运用银行棕色资产惩罚和绿色资产支持工具,以及明确监管工具的政策目标,均可提升监管成效,防范转型风险。本文的政策启示是:在有序推进碳达峰碳中和基础上,应警惕金融体系风险放大器的作用,注重惩罚类和支持类监管工具的综合运用,提升金融体系韧性;同时,确保监管工具聚焦于防范低碳转型风险,避免政策目标泛化。

Based on DSGE model,this paper takes carbon tax as an example,and conducts multi-scenario policy simulation and numerical analysis to investigate the impact of carbon emission reduction on transition risks and regulatory countermeasures.Carbon tax simulation found that:slowing down the pace of taxation,policy communication can enhance the stability of carbon tax policy,reduce the risk of transition.The“circular feedback”transmission path between finance and real economy can amplify the transition risks.The simulation of the combination of carbon tax and regulation shows that differential regulation on brown and green assets of banks can optimize the asset structure of banks,enhance the resilience of the bank and financial system and prevent the amplification of transition risks.The comprehensive use of brown asset punishment and green asset support regulatory tools,as well as the implementation of supervision before carbon tax,can improve the effectiveness of regulation and prevent the transition risks.We suggest that on the basis of orderly promoting carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,it should be alert to the role of the financial system as a risk amplifier,pay attention to the comprehensive use of punitive and supportive regulatory tools,improve the resilience of the financial system,and ensure that regulatory tools focus on preventing low-risk Carbon transition risks and avoid generalization of policy goals.