双循环背景下中国消费对经济增长的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Chinese Consumption on Economic Growth under the Background of Dual Circulation

将扩大内需与供给侧改革相结合,是需求和供给侧实现动态平衡的重要途径,是形成国内国际双循环新发展格局的必然要求,是培育我国经济发展新动力的必要条件。本文将消费规模视为内生于经济增长的重要因素,分别使用Hansen(1999)和Seo和Shin(2016)提出的门槛效应模型对2009-2017年279个地级市的面板数据进行实证检验:全样本结果表明消费的经济增长效应随劳均消费规模变化而变化,进一步将消费的经济增长效应分为直接效应和间接效应,当劳均消费规模达到门槛值后,其拉动经济增长的直接效应有所减弱,而通过提升劳动、资本等要素利用效率,改善外资使用效率促进技术引进进而促进经济增长的间接效应有所增加,综合表现为消费推动经济增长的规模效应。要努力打通难点,畅通消费循环,完善现代产业体系,将扩大内需战略和深化供给侧结构性改革进行有机结合,增强经济高质量发展的内生动力。

Combining domestic demand expansion with supply-side reform is an important way of demand and supply side dynamic balance,it is an inevitable request to form the domestic and international dual circulation new development pattern,it is an essential condition to cultivate new impetus of the economic development.In this paper,consumption scale is regarded as an important factor inherent in economic growth,and the threshold effect model proposed by Hansen(1999)and Seo&Shin(2016)is used to empirically test the panel data of 279 prefecture-level cities from 2009 to 2017.The results of the full sample show that the economic growth effect of consumption changes with the change of the consumption scale of average labor.The economic growth effect of consumption is further divided into direct effect and indirect effect.When the consumption scale of average labor reaches the threshold value,the direct effect of economic growth is weakened.The indirect effect of improving the use efficiency of foreign capital to promote the introduction of technology to promote economic growth has increased,which is comprehensively manifested as the scale effect of consumption to promote economic growth.We should work hard to overcome difficulties,unblock the consumption cycle,improve the modern industrial system,combine the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform,and strengthen the internal driving force for high-quality economic development.