货币政策规则对碳减排进程的影响——基于DSGE的政策模拟研究

The Influence of Monetary Policy Rule on the Carbon Reduction Process:A Policy Simulation Study Based on DSGE

节能减排并实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标是中国目前正在大力推进的经济社会发展重大战略。在这一过程中,除了直接的环境政策以外,央行的货币政策也是非常重要的影响因素。为此,本文基于动态随机一般均衡模型,引入高碳排放行业与低碳排放行业,模拟这两个行业如何对货币政策做出反应并评估碳减排过程中的福利损失。研究结果表明:中央银行对碳减排率采取中性或轻微紧缩的政策将有助于抑制高碳排放行业扩张并促进低碳排放行业发展,这种此消彼长主要通过两个行业投资的差异化来实现;对通货膨胀的抑制能够有力促进高碳排放行业的出清,然而其代价是产出的剧烈波动;货币政策对产出缺口进行更严密的跟踪和响应是降低福利损失的有效手段。

Energy conservation and emissions reduction,as well as achieving the goals of“carbon peak”and“carbon neutrality”,are major strategies for China’s current economic and social development.In this process,in addition to direct environmental policies,the monetary policy of the central bank is also a significant influencing factor.Therefore,this article,based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,introduces high-carbon emission industries and low-carbon emission industries to simulate how these two industries respond to monetary policy and evaluate the welfare loss during the carbon reduction process.The research results show that:The neutral or slightly contractionary policy of the central bank towards carbon reduction rates will help to suppress the expansion of high-carbon emission industries and promote the development of low-carbon emission industries,which is mainly achieved through the differentiation of investment between the two industries;The suppression of inflation can effectively promote the exit of high-carbon emission industries,but the cost is the drastic fluctuation of output;A more rigorous tracking and response of the output gap by monetary policy is an effective means to reduce welfare losses.