房价上涨与产业结构升级——基于城市数据的经验分析

Rising House Prices and Upgrading of Industrial Structure——Empirical Analysis Based on Urban Data

本文基于2003-2018年全国283个城市面板数据,探究了房价上涨对产业结构升级的影响。结果表明:房价的快速上涨显著抑制了产业结构升级,当房价增长率超过7.4%时抑制作用更加明显。从影响机制来看,房价上涨通过企业创新投入、资源配置效率及人力资本水平三个渠道影响产业结构升级。具体而言,房价上涨会带来企业创新投入增加,从而促进产业结构升级;但是,更大程度上房价上涨降低了行业间资源配置效率和城市人力资本水平,从而抑制了产业结构升级。因此,最终体现出的总体效果是房价上涨对产业结构升级产生了抑制作用。文章进一步的异质性分析发现,房价上涨对产业结构升级的影响存在明显的区域差异和时间差异,在东部地区、京津冀城市群和长三角城市群,房价上涨对产业结构升级抑制作用显著;2013年至2018年,房价上涨对产业结构升级的抑制作用更加明显。

Based on the panel data of 283 cities in China from 2003 to 2018,this paper explores the relationship between housing price rise and industrial structure upgrading under the background of high-quality development.The results show that the rapid rise of housing price significantly inhibits the upgrading of industrial structure,and the inhibition effect is more obvious when the growth rate of housing price exceeds 7.4%.From the perspective of the influencing mechanism,the rising housing price affects the upgrading of industrial structure through three channels:enterprise innovation input,resource allocation efficiency and human capital level.Specifically,the rise of housing price will bring the increase of enterprise innovation investment,thus promoting the upgrading of industrial structure;However,the rising of housing prices to a greater extent reduces the efficiency of interindustry resource allocation and the level of urban human capital,thus inhibiting the upgrading of industrial structure.Therefore,the overall effect is that the rise of housing price inhibits the upgrading of industrial structure.Further heterogeneity analysis shows that there are obvious regional differences and time differences in the impact of housing price rise on industrial structure upgrading.In the eastern region,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,housing price rise has a significant inhibitory effect on industrial structure upgrading.From 2013 to 2018,the effect of rising housing prices on the upgrading of industrial structure is more obvious.