后新冠时期的人民币汇率展望

The RMB exchange outlook of the first year of recovery from the COVID-19

2020年下半年,中国经济率先从新冠疫情中复苏。人民币汇率也因此彻底逆转了前两年的弱势,走入了强势上攻的行情。人民币对美元在2020年已经升值了6.7%,本文的归因分析显示,美元指数、中美息差和其他因素今年对人民币汇率的升值都是正贡献。在这其中,美元指数的下跌主要源自于美国新冠疫情的失控引起的货币财政大幅宽松,息差扩大的主因是疫情控制的差异导致的中美经济分化,而其他因素对人民币汇率的支撑则主要源自于拜登当选后外界对于中美关系和缓的预期。本文判断人民币汇率中枢在明年总体仍将继续抬升。第一,美元指数明年在经济复苏和低利率的综合作用下仍然会逐步下行,这会支撑人民币汇率;第二,基本面因素在上半年支撑汇率上行,下半年则会压制汇率。本文的模型显示人民币汇率的中枢在明年上半年会进一步下沉至6.4平台,而在下半年美元指数下跌的正面影响和中美息差缩窄的负面影响大致相抵,汇率中枢会停止上行。总体看,人民币汇率中枢进一步升值的空间已经不大,总体上会呈现双向波动的态势。

In the second half of 2020,China’s economy was the first to recover from the pandemic.As a result,the RMB exchange rate has completely reversed the weakness of the previous two years.The RMB has appreciated by 6.7%against the U.S.dollar by the end of the year2020.The attribution analysis shows that the U.S.dollar index,China-US interest rate differentials and the other factors have all contributed positively to the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate this year.Among them,the decline in the U.S.dollar index is mainly due to the large monetary and fiscal stimulus.The main reason for the widening of interest rate differentials is the economic differentiation between China and the United States caused by differences in epidemic control.Besides the above reasons,the victory of Biden in the US election gave the market ease expectation about the US-China tensions.The author thinks that the CNY will continue to rise against USD next year.First,under the mixed effect of economic recovery and low interest rates,the US dollar index is expected to continue depreciating gradually next year;second,fundamental factors will support the RMB in the first half of the year,and will suppress the currency in the second half.The author’s model shows that the RMB exchange rate will further appreciate to 6.4 platform in the 1 Hof next year.In the 2 H,the positive impact of the depreciation of the dollar index will roughly offset the negative impact of the narrowing of the CN-US interest rate gap.At that time,CNY will stop rising.On the whole,there is little room for CNY appreciation.The currency will enter into a two-way movement against the dollar.