美国通胀前景分析与大类资产价格走势展望

The Prospects of the American Inflation and Major Assets Prices

本文在全球经济受新冠疫情影响的环境下,对美国通胀在短周期和长周期的时间跨度上进行前景展望,同时探讨了在预计的通胀环境中大类资产价格的不同表现。本文回溯了美国通胀的历史数据以及各时期影响美国通胀的主要因素,其中着重对比分析了2008年经济危机和目前新冠疫情下经济环境、金融环境和政策应对等方面对美国通胀的影响。我们得出结论,未来美国进入通缩的概率并不大,大概率呈现短期通胀受抑制但长期通胀上行的整体走势。并基于予此分析对未来大类资产价格表现做出预判。

This paper aim for forecasting the inflation trajectory of United States Under the influence of Covid-19 pandemic in different time frame,addition with the various performances of asset prices according to our inflation outlook.We compared Covid-19 with 2008 Financial Crisis in terms of economic situation,financial condition and policy responses.We arrived at a conclusion that the deflation risk of United States is limited in long-term,we should witness the inflation subdued in short term due to the pandemic uncertainty,but expect long-term inflation gradually return to inflation target of FED assisting with unprecedented easing policy both from monetary and fiscal.